The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century. Scenario Narratives Report.

Abstract

"This document serves as the final Scenario Narratives Report for the Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century, a project of the Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) working group and Global Business Network (GBN), a member of the Monitor Group. The purpose of this project, and these scenarios, is to systematically consider the long-term social, technological, economic, environmental, and political impacts on Arctic Marine Navigation of Key Finding #6 of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) published by the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee in November 2004. These scenarios are meant to summarize and communicate a set of plausible and different stories of the future in which critical uncertainties play out in ways that challenge planning decisions being made in the present." /.../