Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment. Scenarios of the Future.

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Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME)
"The high-level scenario summaries were created at two AMSA/PAME Scenarios Workshops held in San Francisco (April 2007) and Helsinki (July 2007). The workshops were designed and facilitated by Global Business Network of San Francisco. Through brainstorming, work in small groups and spirited plenary discussion, workshop participants collectively agreed that the two factors detailed below – Governance and Resources & Trade – are the most important and uncertain in shaping the future of Arctic marine navigation in mid-century. By crossing these two critical uncertainties, participants formed the scenario matrix illustrated to the right. This framework also allows the incorporation of many of the uncertainties explored at the workshops, while still creating four different scenario spaces that are plausible and relevant to the range of Arctic stakeholders. When completed, the scenario stories willbe posted on the PAME website,"